​The Cost of Uncertainty: What the Iranian Conflict Means for Recruitment in 2026

If the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that recruitment doesn’t operate in a vacuum. It moves with confidence, and confidence has been in short supply.

From the war in Ukraine to political change here in the UK, a series of underwhelming economic outlooks, and inflation hitting levels many hadn’t planned for, the market has had to navigate a near-constant state of disruption. Now, with escalating tensions involving Iran and the knock-on impact on global energy markets, we’re once again facing a familiar challenge: uncertainty.

A Market Tested by Relentless Disruption

Let’s call it what it is. The recruitment market has had a tough run. Over the past few years, businesses have had to contend with:

• Volatile input costs

• Shifting consumer demand

• Political and regulatory change

• Reduced visibility on future trading conditions

Unsurprisingly, that has translated into more cautious hiring strategies. Many of the larger, high street recruitment firms have reported declining revenues, a clear signal that confidence, not capability, has been the limiting factor. Hiring didn’t stop. But it slowed, became more selective, and in many cases, more reactive.

Why Some Sectors Have Held Firm

Not all parts of the market have behaved the same way. At MorePeople, we’ve continued to see growth through this period. That’s not by accident; it’s a reflection of the sectors we operate in. The food supply chain is fundamentally resilient. Regardless of economic cycles, geopolitical tension, or inflationary pressure, one thing doesn’t change: people need to eat. But there’s another, often overlooked factor. Many businesses across food, fresh produce, agriculture, and ingredients are already operating incredibly lean. There’s very little excess to trim.

That creates a different hiring dynamic:

• Roles are often critical, not optional

• Vacancies can’t sit open for long

• Talent gaps have a direct operational impact

In short, when these businesses hire, they mean it.

Enter 2026: A Strong Start, Fragile Confidence

We’ve seen a positive start to 2026. Activity levels are up, conversations are more proactive, and there’s a sense that businesses are ready to move forward again. But that optimism comes with a caveat. Uncertainty remains the single biggest threat to hiring momentum.

The developing situation involving Iran is a case in point. Rising fuel costs don’t just affect logistics; they ripple through the entire supply chain:

• Increased transport and production costs

• Pressure on supplier margins

• Cost price negotiations with retailers

• Reduced visibility on profitability

And when margins are squeezed and visibility drops, hiring decisions often get delayed. Not cancelled but paused.

So, What Happens Next?

It would be easy to assume that increased pressure leads to a hiring freeze. In reality, it’s more nuanced. Yes, some businesses will hold back, particularly where roles are “nice to have” rather than essential. But the world doesn’t stop. Crops still need growing. Products still need sourcing. Supply chains still need managing. Retailers still need stock on shelves.

Which means:

• Critical roles will continue to be filled

• High-impact hires will still get signed off

• Strong candidates will remain in demand

What may change is how businesses hire:

• More scrutiny on ROI of each hire

• Greater emphasis on proven experience

• Faster processes when the right candidate appears

The Bottom Line

Recruitment in 2026 will be defined by one thing: confidence under pressure.

The Iranian conflict, like the events before it, adds another layer of complexity. It won’t stop hiring altogether, but it will influence the pace, the priority, and the mindset behind it.

For businesses, the challenge is balancing caution with the reality that standing still carries its own risk.

For candidates, it’s about recognising that opportunity still exists, particularly in sectors that simply can’t afford to pause.

And for those of us in recruitment, it’s about helping both sides navigate that uncertainty with clarity, speed, and a focus on what truly matters. Because while markets fluctuate, one thing remains constant: The world keeps spinning.